By using lectures, a case study and discussion of presentations of the students own research proposals, I try to familiarize them with the contents of a research proposal for a quantitative study. In I developed a first draft of a format and I have been adapting that ever since. By publishing it here I hope that others students, researchers also can take advantage of it when writing their proposals. The Introduction should contain the following sections:
History[ edit ] The name "Delphi" derives from the David Cookalthough the authors of the method were unhappy with the oracular connotation of the name, "smacking a little of the occult".
The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.
Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approachquantitative models or trend extrapolation, quickly became apparent in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet.
Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.
Key characteristics[ edit ] The Delphi Method communication structure The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies: The panel consist of experts having knowledge of the area requiring decision making.
Each expert is asked to make anonymous predictions. Anonymity of the participants[ edit ] Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process.
Arguably, it also frees participants to some extent from their personal biases, minimizes the " bandwagon effect " or " halo effect ", allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.
Structuring of information flow[ edit ] The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content.
This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics. Regular feedback[ edit ] The Delphi Method allows participants to comment on the responses of others, the progress of the panel as a whole, and to revise their own forecasts and opinions in real time.
Role of the facilitator[ edit ] The person coordinating the Delphi method is usually known as a facilitator or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc.
Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.
Applications[ edit ] Use in forecasting[ edit ] First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology forecasting. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator.
One of the first such reports, prepared in by Gordon and Helmer, assessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs, population controlautomationspace progress, war prevention and weapon systems. Other forecasts of technology were dealing with vehicle-highway systems, industrial robots, intelligent internet, broadband connections, and technology in education.
Later the Delphi method was applied in other places, especially those related to public policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education.
It was also applied successfully and with high accuracy in business forecasting.
This is only one example; the overall accuracy of the technique is mixed. The Delphi method has also been used as a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making in developing countries.
The governments of Latin America and the Caribbean have successfully used the Delphi method as an open-ended public-private sector approach to identify the most urgent challenges for their regional ICT-for-development eLAC Action Plans.
Epsilon Corporation, Chemical Vapor Deposition Reactor The results were then used by patent attorneys to determine bonus distribution percentage to the general satisfaction of all team members. Use in policy-making[ edit ] From the s, the use of the Delphi technique in public policy-making introduces a number of methodological innovations.
These often include desirability, feasibility technical and political and probability, which the analysts can use to outline different scenarios: Further innovations come from the use of computer-based and later web-based Delphi conferences.
According to Turoff and Hiltz,  in computer-based Delphis: According to Bolognini,  web-based Delphis offer two further possibilities, relevant in the context of interactive policy-making and e-democracy.Search for: Recent Comments.
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The Purdue University Online Writing Lab serves writers from around the world and the Purdue University Writing Lab helps writers on Purdue's campus. A Sample Mixed Methods Dissertation Proposal Prepared by Nataliya V.
Ivankova NOTE: This proposal is included in the ancillary materials of Research .